A ceasefire from Israel’s perspective

By Yiğit Saner

After 15 months in Gaza, the weapons have temporarily been laid down. But how did we come from vows of complete annihilation to a point where Israeli hardliners describe the situation as a “defeat” and “humiliation”? The most obvious answer lies in former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s remarks at the Atlantic Council on the evening of January 14:

“We’ve long made the point to the Israeli government that Hamas cannot be defeated by a military campaign alone, that without a clear alternative – a post-conflict plan and a credible political horizon for the Palestinians – Hamas, or something just as abhorrent and dangerous, will grow back. That’s exactly what’s happened in northern Gaza since Oct. 7. Each time Israel completes its military operations and pulls back, Hamas militants regroup and reemerge because there’s nothing else to fill the void. Indeed, we assess that Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost”.

Before saying these, Blinken had elaborated on Israel’s efforts to destroy Hamas’s military capabilities, eliminate its leaders and impose a ceasefire on its own terms, implying that such efforts failed to yield the desired results.

Endless cycle of war

In the days just before Blinken’s speech, Israel’s Nahal Brigade was still suffering significant losses in northern Gaza. Resistance forces had recruited 4,000 new fighters weeks earlier, and following the death of Hamas’s former leader Yahya Sinwar, his brother Mohammed had taken command of the al-Qassam Brigades. Despite depleting ammunition, relentless bombardments, and the collapse of infrastructure, the military wing adapted to the harsh conditions with surprising new tactics.

Blinken highlighted the reality that Israel had entered an endless cycle of war against Hamas, which has the great public support. This reality imposed itself on Tel Aviv.

Exhaustion in Israel

The long war not only caused significant loss of life but also a massive economic downturn, irreparable social disasters and a loss of international credibility. October 7 and hostages created deep traumas in Israeli society. Families of hostages exerted big pressure on the government. Public protests swelled, with sometimes hundreds of thousands, the streets every Saturday.

For months, Israelis live the threats missile and drone attacks from Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and Iran. Israeli newspapers repeatedly reported that “millions of people rushed to shelters in the dead of night”. Numerous civilians lost their lives. This widespread sense of exhaustion played a key role in the ceasefire.

“Hell” from Florida

And the final blow that forced Israel to relent undoubtedly came from Trump. After winning the election, the new US President vowed to bring “hell” to West Asia if the hostages were not released by January 20. At the very moment when a ceasefire was expected to be announced but Benjamin Netanyahu began attempts to sabotage it, Tel Aviv’s billboards displayed Trump’s image alongside his “hell” threat.

Trump wasted no time sending his new Middle East representative Steve Witkoff. He had a “tense” meeting with Netanyahu. According to Arab sources speaking to The Times of Israel, Witkoff accomplished in a single meeting what Biden’s team couldn’t resolve in 15 months. From his Florida mansion, Trump issued a direct message: “You’d better wrap this up”. And that’s exactly what happened. Israel’s Security Cabinet, followed by the government, had no choice but to agree to the ceasefire.

A minefield of problems

For Netanyahu, continuing the war was a matter of political survival. He had found new reasons to undermine negotiations whenever a ceasefire seemed within reach.

Hardline ministers in his coalition had been threatening to topple the government if the Prime Minister accepted a ceasefire. Netanyahu’s grip on power depended on the Gaza war. Losing his office would mean big challenges to Netanyahu. Beyond the well-known issues such as the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant and the genocide case at The Hague, there are also other troubling issues for Netanyahu.

In December, he began testifying in a corruption trial. He prefers the verdict to be issued while he’s still in office.

Additionally, there’s the scandal involving documents illegally obtained from the military by staff in the Prime Minister’s Office. These documents were reportedly manipulated to align with Netanyahu’s Gaza policies and leaked to foreign media outlets. Especially this case enraged hostage families, as the documents were used delay the ceasefire even further. Netanyahu hasn’t been directly implicated in the case, but one of the accused staff members attempted suicide in prison.

Netanyahu aims to hold onto power for at least another two years hoping to tackle the enormous problems he has created and tempering the animosity against him. However, he faces a front of extremists opposing the ceasefire. This front is strong enough to either oust him or render him lame duck.

Hardliners revolt

The significance of the ceasefire agreement for Israel’s pro-war factions can be seen in the confessions of a high-ranking military official, in the Israeli press:

“This is an absolute disaster deal. For over a year, we resisted against a deal like this. It renders any progress we made in Gaza as useless and in vain. There is no mechanism to remove Hamas from power. According to this deal, the way it is structured now, Hamas will keep ruling the Gaza Strip. They will likely rearm and recruit more fighters than before. I tell you one word: Embarrassment. We surrendered to the terrorists of Hamas.”

This perspective is represented in the government by two key leaders. One of them is Bezalel Smotrich, leader of the Religious Zionist Party and Minister of Finance. He said the following just hours before the ceasefire agreement:

“The only solution for Israel is to settle in Gaza and deport its residents to Sinai or Jordan. Instead, we’ve now signed our own defeat.”

Smotrich described the ceasefire as “shameful” and said that he will resign unless the war resumed after the first phase of the ceasefire to achieve all objectives.

Compromise or lame duck

Even before the second phase of the ceasefire, Itamar Ben Gvir, leader of the Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) Party and Minister of National Security, resigned. He pulled two additional ministers from the coalition with him. Claiming that he became “even more alarmed” after reviewing the details of the agreement in the Security Cabinet just hours before the government vote. He stated: “This agreement means Israel’s defeat. It will undermine our progress”. Ben Gvir promised to return if the war resumes.

For now, the balance hinges on Smotrich. His resignation could theoretically collapse the government. However, opposition parties offer support to Netanyahu if he continues the ceasefire. However, this is far from an ideal solution for the Prime Minister. Because these scenarios would render him lame duck with opposition holding the reins of power and likely pushing for elections once all hostages are released.

Netanyahu is walking a precarious tightrope. He is trying to retain hardline ministers with political concessions. Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi recently announced that he will resign on March 6. He cited the failure of October 7 as reason. However, some media wrote that Halevi was pressured to resign to appease Finance Minister Smotrich. The General has been under pressure to step down for months, particularly from Defense Minister Israel Katz and the extremist factions led by Smotrich. While criticism has officially centered on the October 7 failure, hardliners were dissatisfied with Halevi’s approach to the war in Gaza.

The army’s flawed strategy

The General Staff’s strategy did not involve stationing permanent troops in occupied areas. After a certain area declared to be “cleared”, troops were redeployed to other parts of Gaza. As a result, Hamas fighters quickly regrouped and regained control of these “cleared” areas. The occupying forces returned and destroyed and then withdrew again.

So, this turned into a vicious cycle from the very beginning of the war. In fact, in the days leading up to the ceasefire, many areas in northern Gaza where the Nahal Brigade suffered heavy casualties had already been entered and exited multiple times by the Israeli forces.

Another concession: The Jenin operation

Netanyahu’s other appeasement was to offer “gains for the right” in exchange for Smotrich and Ben Gvir staying in the government. According to Israel’s public broadcaster KAN, the Prime Minister promised them new settlement construction in the West Bank and intensified attacks on the resistance forces. Consequently, on January 19 Israel launched an operation in Jenin, a stronghold of resistance fighters in the West Bank. Now there are fierce clashes and mass arrests here. Even the Palestinian Authority led by Mahmoud Abbas which has kept the Jenin refugee camp under siege for two months, is participating in the operations. Any aggressive activity in the West Bank is likely to appeal to Smotrich and Ben Gvir.

The “great sacrifices” of the Prime Minister

Netanyahu, who had to accept all these issues for the sake of the ceasefire, has also made certain concessions at the negotiating table.

Most significantly, the current agreement requires the Israeli army to withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor (Axis), which runs along Gaza’s border with Egypt gradually in the first phase and completely in the second phase. For months, Netanyahu had argued that keeping troops in the corridor was vital for Israel and repeatedly vowed never to withdraw. He had sabotaged previous ceasefire talks on for this reason.

The Prime Minister had also pledged never to withdraw from the Netzarim Corridor, which divides Gaza into two. Here too, the Israeli army will withdraw from Netzarim in the first phase of the agreement.

Also, Netanyahu abandoned the condition of regulating the return of displaced Gazans to the northern region. Moreover, the agreement permits refugees to freely cross the Netzarim Corridor from the south to the north.

The deal also includes the release of Palestinian prisoners from the West Bank who have not been convicted of murder. Netanyahu had claimed that this would never happen.

Hamas is the only force to govern Gaza

Even worse for Israel, Tel Aviv’s primary war objective was to prevent Hamas from governing. That promise now seems unfulfilled. Israel’s Channel 12, in the face of the images of armed fighters and the people’s hug after the first prisoner exchange, assessed that “Hamas is the only force capable of governing Gaza”. Haaretz newspaper described the appearance of hundreds of armed Qassam Brigades fighters just a few kilometers from the positions of occupying forces on the day of the prisoner exchange as a “show of strength” The newspaper commented “Hamas has displayed signs of its military and civilian governing power”.

These images from Gaza caused widespread outrage in Israel. The fighter convoys in white Toyota vehicles, associated with the October 7, marked a historical moment of Israel’s major strategic failure. These images were interpreted by the media as an “insult” to the concept of Israeli security. Israelis fear the unmet objectives will lead to more wars in the future.

Intended vs. achieved

Israel devastated Gaza and dealt severe blows to Hamas, but it is now withdrawing without achieving even a little of its initial objective to eradicate the resistance.

Nearly 50,000 people, many of them women and children, were killed for this unachieved objective. Hundreds of thousands were left homeless, displaced, maimed, subjected to hunger and suffered the loss of family members or a relative. Let alone the long-term social consequences of this…

Since October 7, 2023, the loudly proclaimed “absolute victory” has now reached a point of profound disappointment among the Israeli public toward their political and military leadership. Israelis in media view the “absolute victory” as a symbol of “empty promises”. According to the Maariv newspaper, 80% of the public believes that the war’s objectives aren’t achieved. Additionally, Israel’s loss of international standing, arrest warrants against its leaders, the genocide case in The Hague, European states recognizing Palestine, human casualties, economic decline and a depleted military all paint a grim picture for Israel.