He would see success as a major achievement for his political legacy and a victory against the Russia-China-Iran bloc.
He would see success as a major achievement for his political legacy and a victory against the Russia-China-Iran bloc.
By Adem Kılıç, Political Scientist
On January 20, as Trump prepares to return to the White House, his team announced so far and the signs of his approach to the Middle East suggest that Iran will face intense US pressure for regime change in the coming year.
The United States has been seeking regime overthrow in Iran for more than four decades, ever since Jimmy Carter, who recently died at the age of 100, initiated a policy of isolationism against Iran in 1979, the year of the Islamic Revolution in Iran.
The 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran was against the pro-American Shah Pahlavi, and the revolution and the hostage crisis at the US embassy in Tehran at the time dealt a major blow to the US global image and regional interests.
This was because the Shah Pahlavi had been brought to power by a US-British coup in 1953 and had ruled Iran for 26 years without elections and had been one of the biggest buyers of American arms.
The overthrow of Shah Pahlavi put Iran in the crosshairs. Indeed, the Americans triggered the Iraq-Iran War against this regime between 1980 and 1988, and sanctions and US isolation against Iran continued during the subsequent invasion of Iraq and regional developments.
In 2015, the crippling economic sanctions eased by the signing of the Iran nuclear deal brokered by the Obama administration were reversed again during Trump’s first term.
In his first term, Trump ordered the assassination of one of Iran’s top Iranian commanders, Qassem Soleimani, withdrew from the nuclear deal, steered anti-Iranian Arab states into the Abraham Accords with Israel, and implemented a policy of “maximum pressure” against Iran.
At this point, with the fall of Iranian-backed Assad in Syria and the groups Iran calls the “Axis of Resistance” worn down by the 15-month-long genocidal war in Gaza, the impression is that Iran is becoming increasingly vulnerable.
New era
The return of Trump to the White House, who withdrew from nuclear talks with Iran and pursued a policy of “maximum pressure” against Iran, and the fall of Assad in Syria are likely to trigger a new round of pressure on Iran.
American hawks and Israel’s extreme right-wing and genocidal leadership also believe that now is the “perfect time for regime change” and are already pressuring the Trump administration.
Indeed, Democratic Senators Cory Booker and Jeanne Shaheen and Republican Senator Ted Cruz called for “change in Iran” last week.
In fact, Republican Senator Ted Cruz said in a statement; “We have been openly calling for regime change in Iran for a long time. Now the Ayatollah will fall, the mullahs will fall, and we will see free and democratic elections in Iran. Change will come very soon.”
James Jones, a former White House national security adviser who is also known to be close to Trump, said, “The tectonic shift in the Syrian government should mean that change is possible for the Iranian people.”
During his election campaign, Trump also expressed support for Israel’s plans to launch a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Trump, who will be serving his second and last term as president, will likely see regime change in Iran as a major achievement for his political legacy and a victory against the Russia-China-Iran bloc.
In light of all these data, it seems clear that 2025 will be a year in which the US will target Iran and “do everything in its power” to bring about regime change.