Moldova: Elections and consequences

By Gökalp Erbaş

The second round of Moldova’s presidential elections, like the first one, was completed last November amid controversies and suspicions. The country now faces parliamentary elections planned for July 2025. After the official results were announced, Maia Sandu secured her presidency, even though the Socialist Party, whose presidential candidate lost by a very small margin, announced that they did not accept the overseas votes that were added to the second-round elections. Europe followed these elections very closely. Most Western commentaries painted a black-and-white picture of Moldova’s future. Would Moldova be on the side of the European Union, of possible unification with Romania, of support for Ukraine, of the fight against the ‘far-right’ which was made to look like weeds growing in the fields of smooth social democratic Europe; or on the side of the dictatorial, ‘Pro-Russian’ leaders? Sandu’s victory was therefore welcomed with pleasure by Western leaders. However, we must say that it was not a ‘sigh of relief’.

Both the presidential elections and the referendum reveal a divided picture of the country. In the referendum held on the same day as the first round of the elections, citizens were asked ‘Do you support the amendment of the Constitution with a view to the accession of the Republic of Moldova to the European Union?’. The results were %50.65 Yes and % 49.65 No. So, the situation is not fully guaranteed for the West. In fact, if it had not been for the votes of the diaspora in Europe and if Moldovans living in Russia had not been kept away from the polls by various ‘legal tricks’, the constitutional amendment for the EU would have been rejected and the election would have been won by the candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo, who is a Gagauzian.

Throughout the elections, Western inspection agencies, Moldovan intelligence and ‘international’ monitoring missions kept talking about Russian interference in the elections. In this way, Russia appeared as one of the main actors in the electoral atmosphere. Sandu supporters characterized the presidential election and the referendum process as a ‘fight against Russia’. After the elections, the government claimed that at least 10 per cent of voters had their votes bought by money transfers from Russian banks. Although there is no concrete evidence of the allegations reflected in the press, the propaganda war continues. Therefore, it would be more enlightening to pay attention only to the facts and the actions and discourses of the main actors while taking a brief look at Moldova.

Ballot box tricks of the government 

One of the main criticisms of the conduct of the elections by the opposition was the number of polling stations and ballot papers. Why is this so important? The fact that Moldovans abroad are still interested in their country is shown by various polls, mostly in the countries where they live. 66 per cent of them say they would like to return to their homeland if the minimum wage approached 2000 euros. Economic data also confirm this phenomenon. According to World Bank data, 15 per cent of Moldova’s gross domestic product is made up of remittances sent by citizens living abroad to family members in the country. The fact that both the government and the opposition pay special attention to the foreign voters and develop strategies shows that the politicians also share this idea.

Looking at the list of polling stations published by the government, it is hard not to see a picture designed to the opposition candidate’s disadvantage. Out of a total of over 200 polling stations, only 5 were announced to be in Russia, which was later reduced to 2. Moreover, both polling stations were opened in Moscow. It is obvious how much this will affect voting behavior in a big country like Russia. The issue is not limited to the polling stations. In Russia, where about 500 thousand Moldovan citizens live, the government sends only 10 thousand ballot papers, and the ballot papers run out during the elections. To put the situation into perspective, 17 polling stations were opened in the USA, 20 in several cities in France and 60 in Italy. Moreover, if we consider that 25-27 per cent of all Moldovan citizens living abroad live in Russia, it becomes clear that the issue of ballot boxes and ballot papers is not well-intentioned.

Gagauzia becomes more prominent

The Gagauzians are one of the biggest issues challenging the pro-EU wing in Moldova in establishing hegemony in the country. Transnistria and Gagauzia are among the regions whose special status that the Moldovan government wants to abolish by uniting with Romania. In this way, the most important bridges with Russia will be thrown away. Gagauziais not only a matter of foreign relations orientation in relation to Russia and Eurasia. On the one hand, there is the preservation of the family, the legacy of the USSR, the memory of the great homeland war, and publicist policies; on the other, there are unlimited sacrifices, including the abolition of an independent Moldova, which could be undertaken for the sake of EU membership and a place in the ‘civilized Western world’. Perhaps even more important are the economic burdens imposed on Moldovan citizens in favor of the US policy towards Russia. Energy prices in Moldova have risen by 30 per cent this year, which has already begun to spill over into other consumer goods. Let us take a brief look at the energy equation in the region, considering that Moldovan authorities issued an official emergency warning on this issue last week. 

Moldova was almost completely dependent on Russia for natural gas before the Ukraine-Russia war. The war and Moldova’s accumulated debts led to a one-third reduction in gas supplies, so Moldova started to buy gas from Europe. However, it transferred all the remaining gas coming from Russia to Transnistria. In this way, it bought cheap electricity produced from that gas in Transnistria. However, the gas that Russia sends to Moldova comes transit through Ukraine, and Ukraine may cut off this transit gas supply at the beginning of 2025. This would mean that Moldova would also be deprived of cheap electricity. Since energy costs and the cost of living are one of the most challenging issues for the ruling party, this issue is crucial. But the Western powers also see a benefit here at the expense of the Moldovan people. They believe that without Russian gas, Transnistria’s entire industry would collapse, so it might have to join Moldova.

Considering that a Gagauzian candidate almost became the President and received 44% of the votes despite the mentioned conditions, we can understand how risky the July parliamentary elections are for the ruling party in conditions of further deterioration of the economy. Now Gagauzia is more than a minority’s linguistic-cultural orientation issue. The second round of the presidential elections may have paved the way for the opposition voice rising from Gagauzia to become a powerful representative of voices seeking an alternative in Moldova as a whole.