What is Iran’s perspective on the recent developments in Syria

By Masoud Sadrmohammadi

While Iranian media has been preoccupied with domestic economic and social issues, the ongoing possibility of military conflict with Israel, and the situation in Gaza and Lebanon, the recent advances of terrorist forces opposed to the Bashar al-Assad government have become another major focus of media attention over the past week. It is natural that Iran’s analytical and media landscape has been somewhat confused and bewildered due to the rapid pace of these developments, leading to difficulties in analyzing the future trajectory of events in Syria. Although the primary question in Iranian media and analytical circles is the ultimate outcome of these rapid terrorist advances, both government and non-governmental actors agree that these advances cannot be seen as separate from the broader developments stemming from the war in Gaza and Lebanon.

The strategic background of developments in Syria from an Iranian perspective

Iran’s analysts suspect a deeper connection between the Israeli Golan Division ceasing fire and the subsequent arming of the terrorist Jolani forces, suggesting a coordinated effort. Iranians accuse the terrorist and Takfiri forces present in Syria of collaborating with Israel and working towards realizing Israel’s interests. According to Iranian analysts, Israel, both before and during the temporary ceasefire in Syria, has always provided intelligence, logistical, and financial support to Takfiri forces. This is because these forces have played a major role in weakening the military forces of Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon, thus giving Israel the initiative in Middle Eastern politics. Now, while Israel, after weeks of war, failed to make the slightest progress in Lebanese territory and, after suffering dozens of casualties and hundreds of wounded and facing severe explosions in Tel Aviv and Haifa, was forced to a ceasefire with Hezbollah without any achievements, and while in Gaza, after 15 months of genocide, it has still not achieved any of the goals it declared at the beginning of the war – namely, the destruction of Hamas and the release of Israeli prisoners held by Hamas – this time the Takfiri forces have come to the aid of Israel by destabilizing Syria. The concentration of Iranian military forces and Hezbollah forces on confronting Israeli threats has created the necessary space for the advancement of Takfiri forces, which also shows how they are in coordination with Israel. The Iranian analytical space, on the other hand, sees this situation as indicative of Iran’s correct and just policies in Syria. In fact, the overt coordination between the Takfiris and Israel strengthens and confirms the Islamic Republic’s discourse, which considers the Takfiri forces to be forces outside the natural fabric of Middle Eastern Islamic culture and as mercenaries trained by the security organizations of the United States, Israel, and Europe. From Iran’s perspective, these groups cannot operate outside the interests of Israel and the West, and Iran has no choice but to strike these groups to confront the excesses of Israel and the West in the Middle East.

Official diplomacy

In the realm of official Iranian diplomacy, immediately following the recent developments, the Iranian Foreign Minister embarked on a visit to Damascus, subsequently traveling to Ankara, and finally held a meeting with his Iraqi and Syrian counterparts in Baghdad on Friday. President Masoud Pezeshkian also held telephone conversations with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Emir of Qatar. The core of the statements made by Iranian officials can be summarized in two points: 1. Emphasizing the continued support of Iran for the legitimate government of Syria. 2. Warning about the activation of terrorist cells in Syria and the impact this could have on the future security of the Middle East. In addition to the Iranian President and Foreign Minister, Iran’s ambassadors to Syria and the United Nations also explicitly announced the continuation of Iran’s support for the legitimate government of Syria. Majid Takht Ravanchi, Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, in his speech at an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council on the developments in Syria, attributed Iran’s support for the Syrian government to Damascus’s fight against terrorism and stated that it was in the interest of the entire Middle East. Criticizing the double standards of the West and some countries in the Middle East in dealing with terrorist groups, he said: “No distinction can or should be made between types of terrorism; there is no such thing as ‘good terrorism’ and ‘bad terrorism’. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, as a terrorist group explicitly named in Security Council resolutions, poses a serious threat to regional peace and stability.” Previously, Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi had also emphasized in a meeting with Hakan Fidan: “Many of the region’s problems are due to foreign interference. The Takfiri groups in Syria have close ties to the United States and the Zionist regime. The return of terrorists has endangered Syria’s security. The continuation of this situation will affect Syria’s neighbors.”

The Iranian media and analytical perspective

The Iranian analytical space continues to emphasize the cooperation between Takfiri groups and Israel, leaving no doubt about this connection. Iranian analysts believe that Israel is attempting to avenge its failures against the Axis of Resistance in Lebanon and Gaza by creating instability in Syria and destroying the Syrian government. However, despite this focus, Iranian analysts also highlight the intelligence and security shortcomings of the Syrian government and the Iranian and Russian forces present in Syria. According to these analysts, the failure to accurately assess the situation of the terrorists and the lack of preparedness of the Syrian army and Iranian and Russian military forces in Aleppo and other cities indicate mismanagement in this area.

On the other hand, the Iranian analytical space considers Türkiye to be one of the primary culprits in the current situation in Syria. These analysts believe that Türkiye, contrary to its strategic interests, is playing into the hands of Israel and the United States, and that the dire security situation resulting from the renewed activity of terrorist groups in Syria could ultimately harm Türkiye’s own security. Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior advisor to the Iranian Supreme Leader, expressed regret in an interview with Tasnim News Agency for the mistake that the Turkish authorities have made.

Analysts with anti-Turkish inclinations view the current situation as evidence of Türkiye’s expansionist tendencies, which could even lead to the partition of Syria and the annexation of parts of it by Türkiye. They cite a speech by Devlet Bahçeli, the chairman of the MHP party, as evidence of these tendencies in Türkiye. However, more neutral analysts believe that Türkiye is simply trying to alter the situation on the ground in Syria before the arrival of Trump in the White House, in order to have a stronger hand in the political negotiations that will take place during Trump’s presidency.

Will Iran move towards a full-scale military presence in Syria?

While Iranian officials have emphasized the continuation of Iran’s support for the legitimate government of Syria, the quality and extent of this support remains unclear. Many believe that the primary reason for this uncertainty lies in Iran’s doubt about the performance of the Syrian army and government. In fact, Iran is unsure whether the Syrian army, which has abandoned all of its positions in the past week, will be able to continue the war and resist terrorist groups. Without the full cooperation of the Syrian army, security, and political institutions, Iran’s presence in Syria cannot naturally yield the desired and necessary results.

Given this issue, some Iranian analysts believe that Iran should, on the one hand, emphasize its military readiness to provide full support to the legitimate government of Damascus and, on the other hand, compel the Syrian government to take serious measures to strengthen the core of the national army and rally popular forces to resist terrorists. Over the past 10 years, Iran has spent hundreds of millions of dollars and hundreds of its human resources to combat terrorist groups in Syria. If the Syrian army’s repeated withdrawals over the past week are not a ploy or tactic to strike a harder blow against terrorists, it indicates serious weaknesses in these forces that make Iran suspicious of investing heavily in Syria militarily and financially.

Shifting the regional balance of power and subsequent crises

Iran asserts that a victory for terrorist groups in Syria would signify a shift in the Middle East’s balance of power in favor of Israel. Israel would be assured of disrupting the supply network of Hezbollah, Hamas, and other resistance groups, and would become more aggressive in striking Lebanon and Palestine. Moreover, Israel could, under the pretext of ensuring its security, occupy a larger portion of Syrian territory, particularly in the southern and strategic regions around Damascus, which would amount to an expansion of Israeli territory. Concurrent with Israel’s strengthening, its plans to partition Syria, form small, non-independent states perpetually at odds with one another, and dominate the transit routes and energy resources of the Middle East would be realized. All of this would signify a turbulent and crisis-ridden period for the Middle East. Iran therefore sees itself as obligated to counter this grand project, which is a continuation of the US’s “Greater Middle East” project under George W. Bush. The ultimate goal of this project would be the eventual dismemberment and destruction of Iran.