Countdown to the operation against the terrorist organization in Syria!

By Adem Kılıç, Political Scientist

Türkiye’s revolutionary developments in the defense industry have not only increased Türkiye’s independence in foreign policy, but also enabled Türkiye to take independent steps in military operations, shifting the advantage in the region towards Türkiye.

On the other hand, those who argue that Türkiye has not carried out a comprehensive operation against the PKK/YPG and its extensions operating in Syria for more than four years ignore the impact of Türkiye’s asymmetric operations with the strategy of “drying terrorism at its source”.

Türkiye continues to effectively fight against terrorism with decapitation, UCAV strikes against point targets and critical figures, and its military presence in the region, following the ground operations it organized between 2016 and 2020.

New era

International factors in particular play a crucial role in shaping how states perceive and interact with each other.

In order to keep an indispensable power like Türkiye by its side, Russian policymakers have supported Türkiye’s moves at certain stages of the Syrian crisis, while showing restraint in its military operations.

However, the Astana framework in particular has enabled Türkiye and Russia to draw their borders in Syria and shape their policies within these borders, avoiding a serious confrontation that could escalate the tone of dialogue between them.

However, with Israel’s attacks on Lebanese and Syrian territories after Gaza and Trump’s return to the White House, expectations of change in many areas from the Middle East to Ukraine will bring a new process in Syria.

In this new period, Türkiye expects the US to fulfill its promise to withdraw American troops from Syria, where the US is “allied” with the terrorist organization PKK/YPG forces, after Trump’s return to the White House.

Last week, Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler stated that Türkiye expects the US to withdraw its troops from Syria during Trump’s new term. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and President Erdoğan expressed similar sentiments.

But is such a decision possible?

Robert F. Kennedy strengthened the hope that the new US administration might take a step in this direction. Kennedy Jr. is expected to play an important role in Trump’s new cabinet. He stated that Trump wants to withdraw American troops from northern Syria and does not want to leave them as “fodder” in case of conflict between other parties.

While this statement is seen as promising by Türkiye, a few facts should not be overlooked.

The first of these is Trump’s unpredictable policy approach.

Trump has repeatedly stated that the figures spent on wars in the Middle East are to the detriment of the US, both in his previous term and during his election campaign, after the American defeat in Afghanistan. Notwithstanding, he may give up on this idea in order to avoid a similar “loss of face” in Syria.

Secondly, Trump lost the battle with the American establishment to a great extent in his first term.

Therefore, in his new term, he may choose to pursue a policy that is more compatible with this establishment, and this may affect Trump’s decision on Syria.

Thirdly, Trump has a “business perspective” on both foreign and domestic politics.

A report that many resources, especially oil installations in northern Syria, benefit the US could change Trump’s mind.

Fourth, and perhaps most important for Trump, are Israel’s interests.

If Trump thinks that the withdrawal of American troops from Syria and the cessation of support for the terrorist organization PKK will undermine Israel’s interests, he will definitely abandon the troop withdrawal plan.

Indeed, despite the changes in administrations since 2014, no US president has changed his country’s policy of supporting the terrorist organization PKK/YPG militants in the region in the so-called fight against DAESH.

Will Türkiye carry out an operation?

At this point, as Türkiye’s key and influential role in the Ukraine issue has increased, the fact that Russia cannot oppose Türkiye’s steps in Syria in action, even if it opposes Türkiye’s actions in rhetoric, has become even sharper.

Türkiye’s position in the Ukraine war is clear. Türkiye supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but also opposes Western sanctions against Moscow and pursues a balanced and fully independent policy. In other words, if Türkiye decides to carry out an operation against terrorist foci in Syria, even if Russia opposes this decision in rhetoric, it will have to tacitly support it on the ground. Trump, on the other hand, is one of the most experienced leaders. He knows that if Türkiye decides not to withdraw its troops from Syria for the reasons mentioned above and the US continues to support the PKK/YPG, Türkiye can carry out this operation with its fully independent defense industry power. This is no longer dependent on the West.

As a matter of fact, Trump has not forgotten that Türkiye launched Operation Peace Spring in Syria just two days after he wrote a threatening letter to President Erdoğan about Syria during his previous presidency. All these balances show that Türkiye now has a power and determination that prioritizes its own interests. This can be defined as the Türkiye Axis, rather than the axis and interests of countries such as the US and Russia, which are considered global powers.

Türkiye has conveyed its determination to all parties that it will not allow a terrorist state to be established on its border and has started the countdown for a new operation.