Egypt is betting on Trump’s vision to end “endless wars”

By Mohamed Sabreen, Cairo / Egypt

While criticism of American policy is increasing in the Arab world, and some like to raise expectations from the new American president, on the other hand, we see that the majority of Arab public opinion does not have great expectations, but rather great fears from Donald Trump, the new occupant of the White House, as he has returned with a great mandate, and most likely he has returned to take revenge, and will delve into his internal agenda.

The reality is that many in the region did not care who would ultimately win the presidential election race, Trump or Harris, as both are biased toward Israel, and now everyone must coexist with Trump and try to get the best they can get.

Arabs have suffered from false promises and disappointments with American presidents before, and citizens have experienced disappointment with Donald Trump when he was president. The bitterness still remains in the throat from the administration of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, as they are the symbol of weakness and ignoring the suffering of the Palestinians, while maintaining unlimited support for Israel’s crimes.

However, reality forces governments to deal with the new American administration, and Cairo is betting on Trump’s vision of ending endless wars, and that Trump may be more experienced, and freer from pressure, and perhaps as a result of the support of Arab and Muslim Americans in Michigan, his position on Arab issues may improve and become fairer. Others are betting on changing Arab positions, Egypt’s strength and stability, and Trump’s need for Egypt and the Gulf in the great race with China. We will stop at the most prominent points that the Egyptian elite believes will contribute to determining the features of the day after President Trump assumes the presidency, most of which revolve around stopping wars, solving the problem of the Renaissance Dam, and getting rid of the burden of Netanyahu, who threatens to blow up the region.

Sisi: We look forward to achieving stability and peace

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi congratulated Donald Trump in a phone call after winning the US presidential elections. A statement issued by the Egyptian presidency said that Sisi stressed during his call with Trump “Egypt’s aspiration to complete joint work with President Trump during his new term, in light of the strategic nature of the relations that have extended over many decades between the two countries, as well as the distinguished cooperation between the two sides that his first term witnessed, in a way that benefits the Egyptian and American peoples, and achieves stability, peace and development in the Middle East region.

Many experts stopped at the Egyptian leadership’s link between stability and peace, leading to development.”

For his part, the US President-elect stressed, according to the statement, “his pride in the strategic partnership relations that bring the two countries together, and the United States’ keenness to strengthen and develop them in a way that achieves common interests, whether at the bilateral level or in terms of maintaining regional peace and security.

Will Trump end the Renaissance Dam crisis?

Many Egyptian experts believe that Donald Trump’s return to the White House could affect the course of the Renaissance Dam negotiations, and that Trump’s previous experience in the Renaissance Dam file was distinctive, as he succeeded in reaching an advanced stage in negotiations in Washington in 2020, they explain that he had a personal interest in reaching a deal that would end the crisis, using his well-known style of negotiation and direct pressure.

Dr. Mohamed Mahmoud Mahran, Professor of International Law and Secretary-General of the International Committee for the Defense of Water Resources, explained that Ethiopia’s position on American intervention has changed after its previous experience with the Trump administration, and that the development of the situation on the ground after the announcement of the completion of the dam’s construction, the change in regional and international balances in the Horn of Africa region, and the emergence of new international players in the region, such as China and Russia, are all factors that affect the course of any potential mediation.

He pointed out that any new American mediation must consider recent developments, including the appointment of the new UN envoy for water, and growing concerns about the safety of the dam after the recent earthquakes in the region.

Regarding the expected role of the United States, Mahran pointed out that Washington can play a pivotal role by providing international guarantees to implement any agreement reached and using its economic and political influence to pressure the parties, while coordinating efforts with the African Union and the UN water envoy, and providing economic and development incentives to the three countries.

He stressed that the success of any future American mediation will depend on its ability to provide solutions that take into account the legitimate interests of all parties, while preserving the historical rights of the downstream countries, adding that time is an important factor in this issue, as the longer the crisis lasts, the more complexities and problems accumulate, so any new American intervention must be swift and decisive, while maintaining a balance between the interests of all parties.

Continuing the Deal Policy

One of the characteristics that Trump was described with during his previous presidency was that he was a deal man, which is related to his background in the business world; all that matters to him is his interests and getting a reward for any service he performs. It is unlikely that this style of policy will decline during Trump’s new presidency; the Republican president believes that the continuation of the war in Gaza negatively affects Washington’s economic interests in the region, and imposes additional economic costs on the United States, not to mention the negative impact on the Israeli economy. From this perspective, Trump will push, in one way or another, towards ending the war.

Trump will remove Netanyahu

Many Egyptian and Arab writers have interacted with the idea of ​​Trump abandoning Netanyahu, an idea that was published by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, which came through one of its writers. The Israeli writer believes that Trump will not waste any opportunity in trying to remove Benjamin Netanyahu, who needs “high maintenance”, despite the friendship that brought them together previously.

In an opinion piece in Haaretz, writer Eran Yashiv believes that it is in Trump’s interest to remove Netanyahu from power because he is someone who needs constant attention, care and support, noting that his opinion is not an accurate prediction but rather an analysis of Trump’s “volatile and unpredictable” position, with economic considerations at the forefront. Yashiv, an economics lecturer, says that in the eyes of the Americans, Netanyahu needs “high maintenance,” as Israel received nearly $18 billion in military aid from the United States over the past year. Trump expressed his desire not to spend American taxpayer money on foreign conflicts, whether in Ukraine or Israel, and acted accordingly. Supporting the ongoing unrest in the Middle East is not on his agenda. Yashiv asks, does Trump have a commitment to Netanyahu? “No,” he answers, as he believes that Trump despises Netanyahu and resents the Israeli prime minister’s relations with US President Joe Biden. Now that he is freed from electoral considerations, his campaign promises have little value.

Avoiding a comprehensive war between Israel and Iran

Trump has often expressed his desire to reduce the US military presence abroad, and during his first term he pushed for the withdrawal of US forces from various hotbeds in the Middle East. This pattern will mean that Trump does not want a comprehensive war between Israel and Iran that would push the United States to directly intervene in support of Israel. According to the previously mentioned logic of deals, Trump realizes that the continuation of the Gaza war will reinforce the occurrence of this hypothesis, which will affect Washington’s economic interests and commercial and economic projects in the region. Therefore, Trump will be keen to avoid being dragged into an uncalculated adventure led by Netanyahu and will pressure him to avoid this scenario. Instead of a military confrontation, Trump is likely to resume practicing a policy of maximum pressure on Tehran.

The role of Trump’s advisors

It cannot be ignored that Trump’s advisors will have an impact on his choices in dealing with the Gaza war and Middle East issues in general, but the limits of this influence will be linked to the relative weights of these advisors; according to Giles Alston, an expert on American affairs at Oxford Analytics, Trump’s advisory team includes three main currents; One is the restrained realists, who advocate that America’s foreign policy goals should be limited. This group includes Trump’s vice president, J.D. Vance, and the national security analyst Elbridge Colby, who is likely to play a major role in the White House. They favor focusing American resources on confronting China while expecting allies to shoulder more burdens elsewhere. They see Beijing as contributing to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East to distract Washington from confronting China. The second group promotes a “peace through strength” approach, and prominent members include former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former national security adviser Robert O’Brien, and Senator Tom Cotton. Although they also want U.S. partners to spend more on defense and reduce economic ties with China, they blame weak U.S. leadership for the wars and other international turmoil of the past three years. Unlike the former, they call for continued U.S. assistance to Ukraine, and they criticize the Biden administration for seeking to manage conflicts in Europe, the Middle East, and with China rather than win them.

The third trend refers to economic nationalists, and one of the most prominent figures in this trend is former US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. This trend supports imposing stronger sanctions to weaken China, Russia and Iran, and using tariffs and other incentives to redirect more investments to the United States from foreign countries, including US allies.

Reservations about America’s ability

At the same time, many Egyptian and Arab experts believe that Washington has become weak, divided, flabby, and incapable, and its credibility is deeply questioned even by its closest allies, as the European countries that are members of NATO have doubts about America’s commitment to defending them.

On the other hand, there are major challenges facing Washington globally, which indicate that major dilemmas are looming on the horizon in the Arab world.

Several analysts in the Arab region and beyond believe that developments on the ground in the Middle East, and the outcomes of the conflict between Israel and Iran and its agents in the region, will be the main factor in determining the directions or priorities that the new US president will focus on in his policy in the region.

Even if this hypothesis seems logical based on the historical background of American policy in the region and the extent of its current strategic involvement in the ongoing conflict, formulating America’s future policy as the world’s first superpower seems more complicated considering the profound and accelerating changes on many levels globally, in conjunction with what is happening in the Greater Middle East.

Arab experts believe that among the most prominent global changes affecting the Middle East and North Africa region, and the policies of the major powers intervening in it, most notably the United States of America.

Major crises and wars are currently taking place, most notably the war between Ukraine and Russia and the crisis between China and the United States of America.

At the same time, we are witnessing major changes in the roles and interests of the major powers competing for influence in the Middle East and North Africa, such as China, Russia, Europe and the United States, and the impact of this on the strategic resources of the countries of the region such as energy, trade and armament.

There is a growth in the roles of middle powers in the region such as Egypt, Türkiye, Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia, which have begun to play major roles in determining the fate of affairs in the Middle East.

On the other hand, there are strong indications of a malfunction in global economic and financial relations, initiatives to review the “Bretton Woods” rules on which the system of international financial and monetary institutions was based after World War II, and trends to seek to redistribute roles and change the balance of economic power in the world.. Here BRICS and its sisters stand out.

The world is also witnessing changes in the form of influence and soft power, and the emergence of new multi-dimensional capabilities, whether political, societal, or technological, that go beyond the red lines of value systems and human rights charters that have formed a fundamental pillar of the liberal system for decades, especially globalization, which was consolidated after the Cold War era, and for decades constituted a fundamental component of the West’s soft power. At the same time, global risks have jumped to impose themselves on the countries of the region, and their inability to confront them alone has increased. Climate change is the most prominent of these risks and has resulted in phenomena that are no less dangerous, such as waves of illegal immigration, displacement, and massive asylum to the region, and from there to Europe.

No Great Expectations

It is clear that the Gaza war will represent a fundamental test point for the new American administration, which will face complex calculations; Trump will not back down from his broad support for Israel, and may complete some of the plans he laid out during his previous presidency, but on the other hand, he fears the repercussions of the continuation of the war in Gaza, which will mean a more turbulent Middle East that is not qualified for further openness between Israel and the countries of the region. Between this and that, the “logic of deals” will govern Trump’s moves in the Gaza war file and the Middle East region as a whole.

If all these matters are true, and if the real facts on the ground are difficult and complex, and in light of the repeated scenario of supporting Israel in all cases, and the exhaustion of the scope of maneuver in Washington’s beautification to please the Arabs and its insistence on ignoring their interests, and not caring about the threats to their national security.

And the escalating state of anger, even by Arab governments, towards the American deep state, and its policies that shake the stability of the region, which prompted them to search for new partnerships, whether towards China, Russia, India, East Asia, or the global south.

In light of all this, it seems that all efforts in the coming period will focus on containing the escalation, trying to stop the war in Gaza and Lebanon, not escalating, and preventing the outbreak of a comprehensive war.

At the same time, new attempts will be made to release the Israeli hostages and Palestinian detainees and focus on addressing the horrific humanitarian aspect in Gaza and Lebanon. This will be accompanied by a major diplomatic debate and marathon for the reconstruction of Gaza and Lebanon, who will bear the cost, who will participate in this process, and of course the pivotal issue is related to who will manage affairs in Gaza, and how things will be arranged on the border between Lebanon and Israel.

Most parties are likely exhausted and want to end this round of conflict, return things to normal in the region, and manage the crisis to achieve a breakthrough. This is likely to be accompanied by a lot of talk about settlement projects, but with a demand not to rush, or rush the results, which practically means leaving matters to time due to the inability to decide.

So, there is no room for expectations or major breakthroughs by the new American president, and whoever bets on the occupant of the White House in our region must prepare for a new disappointment like the recent disappointment with Joe Biden, the president who is proud to be a Zionist.