By Mohamed Sabreen, Cairo / Egypt
A difficult time, no doubt, perhaps these are the “hardest days” in the history of the region during the past two decades. In the midst of this dangerous atmosphere, Israel launched its expected response against Iran, and the Israeli attack was limited and weak, and sparked great controversy amid leaked information about a secret deal and understandings before the strike, and news about the success of the efforts of the major countries of the region in containing the escalation, through their relations with the United States, Russia and Iran in concluding a “precise deal” for a weak Israeli response, and Tehran not responding to the Israeli attack, and arranging a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon and a deal to release Israeli prisoners, and this may happen before the US elections on November 5 to enhance the chances of the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Recent events revealed that this “marathon of messages and secret deals” is taking place amid intensive diplomatic rounds, both announced and secret, by the Arab countries, Iran, Türkiye, the United States, France and the European Union, as the American, Israeli and Western circles stopped at Tehran’s movements, especially President Masoud Pezeshkian and his Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Everyone noticed how the dialogues between Egypt and Iran were developing rapidly, and the meetings of senior officials in both countries were held regularly. The “regional agenda” seemed to dominate the agenda of Cairo and Tehran, and in a stronger and deeper way than the course of bilateral relations.
At the same time, the course of Saudi-Iranian relations is moving towards more understanding, and consolidating the process of dialogue instead of hostility. There is no doubt that the more “heated relations” between Iran and the Gulf states increase, the more this will be reflected in the degree of heat of the relationship between Egypt and Iran.
On the other hand, Cairo and Tehran’s membership in the BRICS group provides another platform for dialogue and cooperation between them.
Where has the path of dialogue and cooperation between Egypt and Iran reached in this most difficult stage, in this most difficult time, and in the midst of the current crisis in the Middle East, and in light of serious fears and risks of a major fire erupting if Netanyahu’s madness is not stopped from involving everyone in igniting the Middle East.
Israel’s attack on Iran
Israel announced in the past hours that Iran “paid the price” for its recent attacks on it. Israeli military spokesman, Daniel Hagari, explained that Israel carried out “precise and specific strikes on targets in various areas in Iran.”
He added that these targets included missile manufacturing facilities, surface-to-air missile platforms, and other air capabilities, and explained that Israel chose these sites from a “wide range of targets”, and that it would be able to “select additional targets from them and strike them if necessary.” He concluded by saying, “This is a clear message to those who threaten Israel that they will pay a heavy price.” He stressed that the air strikes it launched on Iranian air defenses on Saturday gave it greater freedom of movement in Iranian airspace.
For its part, the Iranian Tasnim News Agency said that targeting 20 sites in Tehran was “unrealistic.” The Iranian air defense revealed that Israel attacked certain military centers in the provinces of Tehran, Khuzestan, and Ilam. Iran said that its air defenses confronted the Israeli attempts.
Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, were keen to condemn the Israeli military targeting of Iran.
Conditions and secret messages
Informed Arab sources revealed that Washington conveyed specific messages via Switzerland and the Sultanate of Oman, during Pezeshkian’s presence at the United Nations:
Do not attack nuclear or oil targets, do not attack civilians, do not target Iranian leaders, the attack will take place within two weeks, a general list of Iranian military targets, and the final message is that American forces in the region will defend Israel in the event of an Iranian response. Informed sources say that the leaking of secret intelligence documents about the Israeli attack and details of the strikes days before they occurred is part of attempts to prevent a comprehensive war from erupting in the region, and that the Gulf states and Jordan provided guarantees of neutrality and not allowing their lands and airspace to be used in any Israeli attack. Cairo and Qatar participated in attempts to contain the escalation between Iran and Israel.
On the other hand, Russia provided intelligence information to Iran hours before the Israeli attack, and information about the size and extent of the attack. At the same time, informed sources in the region reported that Russia is working to stop this round of conflict in the region, and that Washington and the countries of the region are working on a ceasefire in Gaza and a deal to release Israeli prisoners, and perhaps a deal in Lebanon.
Sisi to Pezeshkian: Uncalculated escalation must be avoided
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi met with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the BRICS summit held in Kazan, Russia. The Egyptian president stressed the importance of defusing regional tension and avoiding uncalculated escalation, which could push the entire region into dangerous confrontations with negative repercussions on regional security and stability.
The official spokesman for the Egyptian presidency stated that the two presidents agreed on the importance of joint efforts to explore prospects for developing bilateral relations, and they also exchanged views on developments in the region. The official spokesman added that Sisi reviewed, in the same context, the intensive Egyptian efforts and contacts to try to push the path of calm and reach a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon, stressing the need to mobilize international efforts to urge all parties to deal positively with the efforts aimed at restoring calm in the region, in a way that allows for addressing the humanitarian catastrophe experienced by civilians in Palestine and Lebanon.
The most important features of Egypt’s vision
I think that Egypt’s vision for the region and its conflicts revolves around the necessity of establishing permanent and just peace in the region. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi believes in many of his statements that Egypt is the largest country that has paid a price for Palestine, “and this will not change,” and that other parties must seek to correct their mistakes, referring to the Hamas movement.
He always stresses, “We encourage any efforts that help unite the Palestinians. This is the best time to resolve the Palestinian issue. There must be real actions that give the Palestinians hope.”
When discussing the security of the Gulf region, he always points out that “Egypt’s security is inseparable from the security of the Gulf,” stressing that the risks are declining but the challenges are great in terms of security.
El-Sisi is always keen to repeat his most famous phrase, saying, “We tell our brothers in the Gulf that this is the distance of the track,” referring to the Egyptian army’s readiness to move to repel any aggression against the Gulf states, adding, “We have an army that does not forget those who stood with Egypt.”
Regarding the position on Iran, Sisi is keen to emphasize, saying, “We have the ability to protect our Arab national security. Iran realizes that the relationship with Egypt passes through the Arabian Gulf. The Gulf is our people and we care about it living in peace. All we seek with Iran is a just relationship.”
Sisi stresses that Egypt cannot accept anyone harming the Gulf regional security, stressing, “We have the right to secure our interests, just as Iran has the right to worry about its interests.”
Regarding the Syrian crisis, Sisi believes that “the most dangerous thing we could face is the division of Syria,” adding, “No to the division of Syria, no military solution, and no to the ‘Afghanization’ of Syria.”
Sisi stressed that the dangers of extremism and terrorism in Syria must be eliminated, stressing that summoning extremists to Syria has complicated the opposition’s position.
Sisi said, “Resolving the Syrian crisis will calm the region.”
An unofficial Egyptian view of Tehran
From the unofficial Egyptian point of view, some Egyptian experts believe that Egypt has always believed that the areas of regional cooperation with Iran are larger than the narrow areas of disagreement that some parties hostile to Arab interests have tried to inflame, stressing that Egypt is concerned with strengthening and coordinating cooperation and consultation with all regional and international powers and parties to prevent the expansion of the conflict and war.
Mohamed Khairi, a researcher in political philosophy and a specialist in Iranian affairs, believes that Iran has ambitions to restore its relations with Egypt, especially with Egypt being the largest country in the Arab and African region, and seeks to expand its influence and enhance strategic cooperation through other axes away from the frameworks imposed on it by the United States and Europe due to sanctions since the United States withdrew from the nuclear agreement in 2015.
He pointed to Iran’s previous readiness to accept Egypt’s conditions and observations regarding the restoration of relations in a balanced manner, with Iran dealing as a normal country in the region and contributing to resolving regional issues in a rational manner without being an obstacle to achieving regional stability.
Nine features of the relationship between Egypt and Iran
From all of the above, nine features of the relations between Cairo and Tehran can be identified up to the present moment, which are:
1- The meeting between the leaders of the two countries came within the framework of the reconciliation process that includes the Arab region or the entire Middle East, and Iran opened a new area for relations with Saudi Arabia through reconciliation with Saudi Arabia under the auspices of China within the framework of Arab and Iranian reconciliation. The meeting also came at a very important time, as Egypt seeks through it to contain the situation in the Middle East, especially to prevent the war from expanding and turning into a regional or comprehensive war, in addition to coordinating efforts for Gaza. Accordingly, President Sisi’s meeting came within the framework of confirming Egypt’s continuation of its open policy towards all regional parties to achieve calm and not escalate the conflict in Gaza.
2- The meeting between Sisi and Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the BRICS summit is an important occasion, as it is not the first meeting between the leaders of the two countries. Sisi had previously met with the late Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi after a period of estrangement due to historical, ideological, political and other considerations. However, this picture has changed somewhat in the recent period, as there have been positive messages between the two countries, especially after the Saudi-Iranian and Gulf-Iranian rapprochement. Consequently, many steps have been taken towards rapprochement.
3- Arab experts believe that it is important for these meetings to translate into progress on important issues in a practical way, and they believe that regular meetings and coordination will achieve great progress in strengthening and restoring relations between the two countries, especially in light of the regional and international challenges and the Iranian role, importance and position in these issues.
4- The invitation of the Iranian President Pezeshkian to a meeting in Qatar with the foreign ministers of the GCC countries, and before his predecessor’s attendance at the Islamic Summit in Saudi Arabia at precise times, is considered an important element and recognition of Iran’s role, and its possession of the necessary tools of influence in the explosive issues in the region. Cairo, with its political and diplomatic weight, can contribute to coordinating relations with Tehran and Saudi Arabia in many files, which may lead to achieving positive understandings at the political and security levels.
5- The succession of meetings confirms the path of restoring relations and their development in the future, and sends a message abroad, especially to the United States of America, Israel and Western countries, with the continuation of Israeli attacks, to consolidate cohesion and rapprochement between regional and international parties, and this poses a danger to the Israeli side and puts matters beyond the scope of American control, especially since these meetings may be an important coordination axis at the level of regional policy.
6- Egypt and Iran have many files that require rapprochement, including political, diplomatic, economic and security files, and if consensus is reached on a number of these files, there will be a great opportunity to fully enhance relations.
7- There are positive and serious signals from the Iranian side in dealing differently, taking into account the Egyptian security red lines and religious and ideological issues.
8- Iran needs Cairo, with its political, regional and international presence as a key to relations with many Arab and African countries, and there are points of benefit for both countries, in addition to areas of rapprochement ready for some regional and international parties to carry out cooperation and roles that go beyond expanding political, regional and international partnerships.
9- There is a consensus among experts that relations between Cairo and Tehran will develop, and may start with economic relations on a limited scale to avoid US sanctions and not challenge the US administration, then expand to include cultural, political and security relations.
Joint maneuver between Iran, Saudi Arabia and Egypt
It is important here to note what the commander of the Iranian Navy, Admiral Shahram Irani, announced that Saudi Arabia has requested to hold a joint naval maneuver with Iran. Iranian media quoted Admiral Shahram as saying that “the Iranian naval forces are present in the Red Sea, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has expressed its desire to organize joint maneuvers in that region.”
He added that “the proposal includes holding bilateral exercises in addition to maneuvers with the participation of other countries,” noting that “coordination between the relevant authorities in the two countries is underway.”
The commander of the Iranian Navy confirmed that “the delegations of the two countries will hold the necessary consultations on how to organize the maneuver.” He also explained that “both countries invited each other to visit each other’s ports.”
On the other hand, the American newspaper Al-Monitor reported a few days ago that Iran is looking forward to holding naval exercises with Saudi Arabia and Egypt amid escalating regional tensions. The planned exercises come on the heels of a recent joint maneuver hosted by Iran in the Indian Ocean, where Tehran seeks to balance Israel and curb American influence in the strategic waters of the region.
Amid the escalating tension between Tel Aviv and Tehran, Iran hosted the “Ions 2024” naval maneuvers on October 18 and 19, with the participation of Russia, the Sultanate of Oman, and a number of other naval forces from several countries, including those bordering the Indian Ocean, while India, Thailand, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia participated as observers.
Bin Salman’s visit to Tehran
Massoud Pezeshkian had previously welcomed the visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Tehran, and said after assuming the presidency, “We will seek to enhance communication between us.” Pezeshkian explained, in response to a question about the Saudi Crown Prince’s visit to Tehran, that “he believes that we are brothers, so why don’t we exchange visits together? And why should there be differences between us?” .
Pezeshkian stressed that he “welcomes any step that contributes to rapprochement between us,” noting that “this is his conviction, whether towards Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, or all Islamic countries,” and he explained by saying, “We will seek to enhance communication between us.”
Iranian vision
On the other hand, Iranian writers were interested in commenting on Tehran’s relationship with neighboring countries and the developments in the situation in the region. International affairs analyst Fereydoun Majlesi confirmed that the visits of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in recent weeks to several countries in the region are aimed at preparing the conditions for peace and preventing tension, through interaction and agreement with Arab and regional countries.
Majlesi wrote in the editorial of the Iranian reformist newspaper “Arman Melli” that although some countries welcome Iran’s idea, they are not ready to get closer to it and the resistance, indicating that if things in the region move towards a ceasefire, it will be possible to talk about the future of Iran’s relationship with Arab countries.
According to the writer, despite welcoming Araghchi’s visits and welcoming Iran’s regional initiative, Iran’s mission will be limited to preventing Israel from using the airspace of Arab countries.
The writer referred to US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s visit to the region, which is working to achieve a ceasefire, stressing that the United States and Israel are essentially one identity, and despite that, there were regional demands for Washington to play a mediating role to establish a ceasefire.
In turn, the expert on regional issues, Reza Sadr al-Husseini, pointed out that Hezbollah’s drone attack on the home of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife was a major event that needs to be re-read.
In an article in the economic newspaper “Tijarat”, the writer noted that from a political standpoint, the party that carried out this act was trying to send a message that Israel, despite having all the facilities in the field of defense, and propaganda about the “Thaad” air defense system, is still exposed to great danger.
Sadr al-Husseini stressed that the infrastructure and defense arrangements in Netanyahu’s residence and around it are stronger than in other areas, in addition to the security systems and accurate defense systems spread throughout the occupied territories, which means that the party that carried out this action was easily able to deliver its warning message.
At the same time, Lebanese writer Ali Hashem, who is close to Tehran, believes that although the assassination of Nasrallah was a blow to Hezbollah, it undoubtedly put the sword to the throat of Iran, which has not only lost a strong ally, but also the spearhead of its offensive power and the first line of defense for the axis. He confirms that Netanyahu has been climbing the ladder of escalation step by step since the beginning of this war. Every time he escalated his strikes, he was not faced with anything that would deter him painfully. It has been proven that the cost of not responding is much higher than responding, as Netanyahu has proven in action, not in words. Hashem concludes his vision in an article titled “Nasrallah’s assassination… Iran is Netanyahu’s next target!”, that the challenge is no longer in the realm of tactics, the challenge today is directly on the chokehold and it does not matter who wins the American elections, and from now on, there is no difference between one administration and another in its closeness to Israel except in the extent of its commitment to the next step and its title, which Benjamin Netanyahu wrote years before this war, strangling Iran. Therefore, perhaps there are those who theorize about the concept of strategic patience in the face of war, and preserving capabilities for a battle time that the enemy does not impose on its timing, but what is happening says a lot, the most important of which is that the Israelis and their allies have taken a decision to go all the way to the end, which does not even allow for preserving the white weapon on a rainy day.
Netanyahu’s war goals
On the other hand, political expert Daniel Williams describes what is happening in the Asia Times as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s “war to end all wars.” The expert says that after Netanyahu rejected calls for a ceasefire in Gaza, “he has developed his most aggressive plan: to secure Israeli military dominance in the region, which he feels has waned.”
Williams reads Netanyahu’s intentions by noting that the Israeli prime minister “considers the military defeat of Hamas as a first step toward filling the gaps left by previous wars that have guaranteed future wars in his mind. It is clear that the Israeli leader only wants decisive victories.”
The political expert believes that Netanyahu’s broader goals are four:
Eliminating the armed opposition in the West Bank and dismantling the Palestinian Authority that governs parts of the territory. Eradicating Hezbollah’s ability to threaten Israel militarily. Undermining Iran’s leadership of the anti-Israel “axis of resistance,” which includes not only Hezbollah but also Syria and the Houthi rebels in Yemen, which block shipping in the Red Sea leading to the Suez Canal. Ending the “two-state solution,” a peace formula long promoted by the United States that would grant Palestinian sovereignty over the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. On the other hand, the Israeli newspaper Maariv reported that it is hard to believe that a year has passed since October 7, and we are still crying, and Hezbollah has not been destroyed, eliminated, or said the last word yet.
It believes that after a year of war, the “Israeli” army has failed to achieve its goals and “deter Iran”, and “Israel” did not know how to form a regional alliance against Tehran, nor did it formulate a strategy to end the war.
Maariv confirms that “Israel” has lost its ability to deter in the region, and it may take years to regain deterrence superiority, and that it is living in political isolation and the danger of the Hague Court investigations hovering over its head.
The scene is unstable and the future is open
The scene remains unstable, and the future is open to all possibilities, but some important observations can be monitored, the most prominent of which are:
1-Iran preempted the Israeli strike through regional diplomacy and the nuclear threat. Iran has moved in several parallel paths, coinciding with the approach of the expected Israeli strike towards it in response to the missile attacks on October 1. These Iranian paths are between Diplomatic efforts to mobilize regionally to mitigate the impact of the Israeli strike on the one hand, and to obtain Arab support that neutralizes the Arab position and does not isolate Iran from its regional surroundings. In addition to Iranian diplomacy in the Arab world, Iran has sent messages to the West in order to increase pressure on it in the nuclear file.
2- There is a clear Arab effort led by Egypt working to calm tensions in the region, as it sought to form understandings and build consensus on ways to end Israeli military attacks on Palestinian and Lebanese civilians.
3- Iran, Russia and China sought to create a kind of regional mobilization, especially with countries that have strong and good relations with the United States, such as Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan, and to use those relations to mitigate the impact of the Israeli strike.
4- It is now clear that Iran has come to realize that when Israeli confrontations against it intensify, it will only be useful for it to consolidate its diplomatic relations with its Arab surroundings.
5- It has become clear that Iran’s deterrent capabilities are weak in the face of Israeli strikes, and that Israel’s intelligence and security superiority, and Israel’s attacks on many targets inside Iran, targeting Hezbollah’s weapons capabilities, and assassinating the leader of the Hassan Nasrallah axis, Sinwar, Haniyeh, and others, after Qassem Soleimani, have made Iran suffer from crises of shaking its image, and its ability to reconcile its internal needs with its need to improve its economic situation by renegotiating the nuclear agreement, and between the regional escalation in the face of Israel and the show of force.
6- In light of the weakness of its deterrence capabilities, Iran seeks to rebuild that power by threatening to change its nuclear strategy. Therefore, Tehran is trying to wave the card of the possibility of developing a nuclear weapon that can be used to pressure the West.
7- Influential Arab circles hope that recent events will provide the appropriate ground for a fundamental change in Iran’s policies so that it becomes a normal state, abandons interference in Arab internal affairs, and pushes Tehran to take real steps to build trust with its neighbors, improve relations with them, and realize that regional isolation will leave Tehran standing alone in the face of American-backed Israeli strikes that will curb the Iranian response.