Power struggle in the Sahel and the future of ECOWAS

The director of the Sahara and Africa Center for Strategic Studies Dr. Abdel Fattah Al Fatihi has talked about the Sahel Confederation’s projects, the accusations of supporting terrorism in Mali and the Sahel countries against Ukraine, Türkiye’s role in the Sahel region, the relations between Senegal and the Sahel states in the near future and ECOWAS’s future.

What are the first projects for the Sahel Confederation? In which areas do they aim to institutionalize first?

The Sahel Confederation’s projects will be governed by local, regional and external contradictions and challenges. Hence, the confederation will coordinate to cooperate and exchange experiences and expertise in the security and military fields to deter the external and internal threats, especially in regard to combating terrorist groups and to impose state control internally and control fragile inter borders.

The confederation’s projects’ priorities are to enhance its security and military influence which is considered as a fundamental pillar of its three states’ leaderships’ doctrine, but The Sahel confederation hopes to be a main player on the political and diplomatic levels in Africa, which will make the negotiations for its states’ return to the Economic Community of West African States very difficult in the light of competition between the both entities, or the negotiations will take place according to new arrangements that ensure the independence of the national sovereignty of the member states according to new commitments to overcome the security concerns.  

It is certain that the confederation will build up a network of political relations with neighboring countries according to the determinants of the post-military coups, and according to the context of managing the transition to civilian rule, which still needs to understand the circumstances of the ruling systems in these countries. That situation confirms that new paradigms will be created to determine the confederation’s foreign policy to the extent that empowers it to establish pragmatic economic relations with neighboring countries and the world.

Due to the appreciation of the transitional period and the arrangement of priorities, and after implementing the priority security projects, the three states will be concerned with the economic and social challenges in light of terrorist groups’ threats and the growing international transformations. Also, the climate change challenge and its pressures resulting from the rise in the food basket bill.

In view of these difficulties, agriculture, renewable energy and infrastructure issues such as roads and transportation, as well as attempts to overcome the challenge to reach the sea will attract great interest, which will support the confederation’s states to increase cooperation with Morocco to benefit from the Atlantic Initiative to enable the Sahel and Sahara states to have access to the Atlantic Ocean.

How do you evaluate the accusations of supporting terrorism in Mali and the Sahel countries against Ukraine? What is the expected response from the Sahel countries?

These accusations are part of the background of the international power struggle in the region, which was previously a vital area for France and the Western countries before the military coups have changed the compass hands towards the new Russian ally. Because Russia is developing the confrontation methods to not keep the conflict within the regional war, it is working to expand the war into a geopolitical war over areas of influence.

Therefore, such accusations are very likely to be raised to adjust balance when the causes of escalation between Europe and Russia increase. The Sahel countries will not benefit from immersing themselves in conflicts and proxy wars, as well as turning their geographical area to a new battlefield between the warring international powers.

Because the West has become convinced of the reality of the officially declared Russian military presence after reports indicated the presence of the Wagner Group, the talk today has become about Russia’s Africa Corps, where Mali geographic scope and the Sahel states can be employed as a new Russian gateway for the confrontation with the West.

The exchange of accusations between Ukraine and the confederation’s states regarding military interventions in another country are still expected and natural in view of the ongoing war of attrition between Russia and the West, and it goes beyond the Ukrainian borders to new international fields.

In the context of assessing their commitments and obligations with Russia and re-evaluating them with regional and international commitments, and with a view of re-evaluating the independence of their sovereign decision after activating their diplomacy, these countries are aware of the risks of turning their lands into a battlefield and the challenges facing them.

Türkiye has recently rapidly developed its relations with the Sahel countries. Fidan’s visit to Niger, Erdoğan’s phone call with his Malian counterpart, etc. What role can Türkiye play in the Sahel region?

Türkiye is strengthening its presence at the African level by activating its religious, political, economic and military capabilities after organizing Turkey-Africa Economic and Business Forum.

The forum has empowered Türkiye to extend its economic and political influence by exploiting soft diplomacy such as religious diplomacy (establishing mosques and religious centers) and economic diplomacy by establishing infrastructure in several African countries, including the Sahel countries.

Today, Türkiye is trying to strengthen its military presence throughout Africa, especially after establishing two military bases in Libya and Somalia. Türkiye is continuing its quest to find a foothold in the Sahel and Sahara region to the extent that empowers it to safeguard its economic interests with Libya, especially in regard to oil exploration agreements on the Libyan coast, which are strongly opposed by the rest of the Libyan parties.

The Prime Minister of Senegal was in Mali the other day and met with both the prime minister and the president. What are the results of this visit, what is expected in the relations between Senegal and the Sahel states in the near future?

Senegal, as a leading state on the West African states’ level, is working to rebuild trust between the confederation’s states and ECOWAS as well as discussing the backtracking on freezing these states’ membership in the community.

The new Senegalese leadership, through its Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko, is also racing against time to curb the Confederation’s approach to act as a competitor to the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) that includes Senegal. It is believed that this role could restore trust during any talks to settle controversial issues with ECOWAS.

Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have exited ECOWAS and are flatly refusing to re-enter. What kind of future is awaiting ECOWAS?

The withdrawal of major countries in terms of geography, population and military will weaken that community and even bring it closer to collapse, as a large number of blocs, unions and alliances that have collapsed for reasons related to how to achieve balance between the sovereignty of member states and the federal unity.

ECOWAS countries have agreed on an imminent military intervention in Niger to restore the civilian rule, which has widened the gap of disagreement among the confederation countries’ military leaderships, which has jeopardized the hopes of these countries’ return to “ECOWAS” in the foreseeable future.