Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement renews hopes for a new regional order

By Mohamed Sabreen, Cairo / Egypt

There is no doubt that Cairo and Ankara have made great strides in strengthening their relations. The summit between Presidents Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave tremendous momentum, prompting some to talk about a new regional order in the Middle East. Indeed, it is difficult to imagine such a regional order in the current situation with this very high level of mistrust, fear, incitement and hatred campaigns by the conflicting states with their different agendas, and the lack of testing the ability to accept compromise and difficult coexistence. But without a vision, there can be no rapprochement. And without a herculean effort to reach rapprochement and engaging in new and innovative means to reach solutions, there will only be more hatred, violence, escalation and the symptoms of failed states – throughout the region.

After Erdogan’s call for a Turkish-Egyptian-Syrian alliance to confront Israel

Earlier, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stressed that the Israeli occupation will not stop at occupying Gaza and Ramallah only, but also extend to neighboring countries such as Syria and Lebanon. He also spoke about forming an Egyptian-Turkish-Syrian axis. Erdogan said at an event for the Association of Islamic Schools that an alliance should be formed against what he described as the growing Israeli expansionist threat. Erdogan’s proposal included confronting “Israeli expansionism”, improving relations with Egypt and Syria to create “solidarity”, an alliance starting with Türkiye, Egypt, Lebanon and Syria, stopping “Israel’s criminal behavior”, a step to stop “Israel’s arrogance”.

Erdogan stressed in his speech that the new phase witnessed by relations between Egypt and Türkiye will serve the interests of Palestine, noting that Ankara will continue its efforts to end the Israeli occupation and genocide policy that has been ongoing for about a year and which has resulted in the deaths of 41,000 Palestinians, including children and the elderly.

The head of the Iranian Interests Section Office in Cairo, Mohammad Hossein Soltani Fard, recently said that the regional situation led to the formation of an undocumented alliance between Egypt, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Soltani pointed out that the crises that occurred in the region, especially the war in Gaza, spontaneously led to the formation of this alliance between the regional powers, explaining that this cooperation led to the consolidation of efforts to resolve chronic regional crises, according to what was reported by the Iranian “IRNA” agency.

He stressed that the ongoing consultations between Tehran and Cairo have greatly contributed to limiting the scope of the war to Gaza, Lebanon and the Red Sea and preventing its expansion into a comprehensive war.

The Iranian diplomat stressed that Egypt’s position rejecting the forced evacuation of two million Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to Sinai, to occupy Gaza and control gas resources, as well as its categorical rejection of the occupation forces remaining in the Philadelphi corridor, had prevented Israel from achieving its goals against the people of Gaza and declaring its alleged victory despite American and Western aid.

Soltani pointed out that this cooperation between regional powers will soon herald a resolution to the Yemeni crisis, as well as stabilizing the situation in Syria, normalizing relations between Iran and Bahrain, in addition to strengthening Iraq’s regional position, and electing a president for Lebanon.

Soltani explained that considering these developments, the Sudanese war as well as the tensions in Libya, in addition to the Renaissance Dam crisis between Egypt and Ethiopia and its peaceful solution, which are all linked to the West Asia region and the occupied Palestinian territories in some way, will be included on the agenda through comprehensive consensus.

For her part, Professor of Political Science at Cairo University Nourhan Al-Sheikh said that Erdogan’s talk about forming an Egyptian-Turkish-Syrian axis is difficult to achieve due to the current situation between Ankara and Damascus and in light of a rift that has extended for nearly 13 years, as a result of Turkish support for the Syrian opposition following the popular protests in 2011, before it intervened militarily and took control of large parts of northern Syria.

However, Al-Sheikh explained that Syria is originally one of the first, like Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine, in the confrontation against Israel, stressing that the presence of Egyptian-Turkish coordination at this stage will represent a strong front and a basic axis to confront Israeli threats.

Bloomberg: Türkiye and Egypt are racing to resolve the crisis in Libya, and their rapprochement is clear

The extent of the noticeable rapprochement between Cairo and Ankara is no longer hidden. Among the many circles and international media outlets, the Bloomberg website has devoted a report saying that Türkiye and Egypt are using their new friendship in an attempt to resolve the conflict over power in Libya, which threatens a civil war, and confirms that there are signs of rapprochement between them regarding Libya, Somalia and Sudan.

The American Bloomberg Agency website stated that “Türkiye and Egypt are using their new friendship in an attempt to resolve the power struggle in Libya, a member of the OPEC organization, recalling that the conflict in the North African country “threatens to lead to a civil war”.

The website quoted officials and diplomats as saying that Ankara and Cairo are pressuring the two rival governments in Libya (the Tripoli government and the Tobruk government) to reach “an agreement that would help end the exhausting oil blockade,” confirming that Türkiye is holding talks with Egypt’s ally and Ankara’s archenemy in the 2019- 2020 war, the commander of the Libyan army, Khalifa Haftar.

According to Bloomberg, Türkiye and Egypt’s influence in Libya has greatly reduced fears of a full-scale war, according to diplomats. Three Libyan officials agreed that improving the relationship would greatly reduce the chances of another conflict in the near term.

The website added that the push to address the Libyan division is one of the common denominators between Türkiye and Egypt, which have been at odds for most of the past decade due to Turkish support for political Islamist movements. Bloomberg said that the two countries adopted a common position against the Israeli military war on Gaza and found that their interests coincided with stopping the civil war in Sudan.

“Prolonged impasse”

Bloomberg also stated that “the talks, led by the United Nations, aimed at resolving the Libyan dispute have not yet borne fruit,” recalling the impact of the dismissal of the governor of the Central Bank, Al-Siddiq AlKabir, by the Tripoli government, and the negative impact this had on relations, while the dominant administration in the east of the country, which has relations with Al-Kabir, responded by suspending Libyan oil production and exports, which led to disruption in energy markets by cutting off supplies that mainly go to southern Europe.

It stressed that signs of rapprochement between Egypt and Türkiye are clear in Libya itself, noting the return of more Egyptian companies and workers to Tripoli and other parts of western Libya, under the control of Türkiye’s local allies. At the same time, Turkish companies are preparing to participate in reconstruction projects in the east allied with Egypt, including around the city of Derna, where devastating floods killed thousands a year ago.

Sudan and Somalia

According to Bloomberg, On the other side of Egypt’s southern border, Sudan is another area where interests may converge. Both Cairo and Ankara have hosted Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of Sudan’s transitional sovereign council and the head of the Sudanese army, on official visits since the conflict erupted.

The website said that the two countries have expanded their military presence in Somalia. Türkiye has its largest overseas base in the Horn of Africa country and has held talks on establishing a site to test missiles and space rockets.

Egypt has begun supplying weapons to the Somali army and plans to train soldiers. Cairo has a long-running dispute with Addis Ababa over the construction of a Nile dam, which Egypt fears will affect the flow of water downstream.

For Erdogan, according to Bloomberg, improving ties with Egypt is part of a broader plan to mend ties with Arab powers and boost the Turkish economy through more investment and exports. Türkiye has mended ties with the UAE and Saudi Arabia in the past two years.

Conditions for the establishment of a new regional system

There is talk these days about a “new regional system in the Middle East”, but it seems that the current scene is dominated by the fact that the crisis system in the Middle East has not yet reached an end that opens the door to a regional security system.

It is an illusion to bet on a new Middle Eastern system in the absence of a new world order, and the biggest illusion is to accept that the Middle East is a stage for the roles of three non-Arab powers: Israel, Iran and Türkiye, who play on it and share influence among themselves with an announced or implicit understanding and with geopolitical conflict or political realism, without a role for the Arabs, who are 400 million people in the largest area of the region.

If the international conflict over roles at the top forcefully leads things to a regional conflict, and prevents the arrangement of a regional system, then three regional projects are preventing any arrangement for a new Middle Eastern system, which are of course expansion projects at the expense of the Arabs, as you see in many Arab circles, and many Arab security, political and strategic affairs experts.

Israel’s project to annex the West Bank after the Syrian Golan and kill the “two-state solution” to prevent the establishment of any Palestinian state that has the minimum components of a state. Netanyahu even rejects what President Joe Biden proposed about a demilitarized Palestinian state.

And the Iranian project, which some voices claim rules four Arab capitals: Sana’a, Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut, and controls the factions in Gaza, and plans to establish a “state of guardianship” over larger areas.

And the Turkish project, to which President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has restored nostalgia for the days of the Ottoman Empire, and opened up desires for Mosul and Aleppo, and occupied and established military bases in northern Syria and Iraq, all the way to Libya, which he claims is “Turkish”.

This is not the path to a regional security system, but to more conflicts and wars. If the existence of a new pluralistic world order is a condition for arranging a Middle Eastern system, then what completes it are three conditions, the first of which is the return of Israel to the 1967 borders and the establishment of a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank with East Jerusalem as its capital.

The second condition is the withdrawal of Iranian influence and the dissolution of the armed sectarian factions on Arab land linked to the Revolutionary Guards, and the transition of the Republic of the Mullahs from the dream of revolution to the reality of the state, so that it “becomes a normal state”.

The third is the return of the Arab role under realistic Arab leadership that works for development and the welfare of peoples and stays away from the politics of conflicts and fighting battles that have no connection to building nations.

Iran is besieging the West with a “good neighbor” policy

In an article in the economic newspaper “Tejarat”, former Iranian ambassador to Russia Mahmoud Sajjadi stated that Europeans and Westerners believe that Iran stands with Russia in the Russian-Ukrainian war, so they are exerting pressure on Iran under various pretexts, and they are concerned about the increasing proximity and strategic cooperation between Tehran and Moscow in various fields.

Sajjadi explained that Russia wants to have long-term cooperation with Tehran, but the West is concerned about the alliance between these two countries because they saw similar cooperation between the two countries in the Syrian war, which led to the defeat of the terrorist organization ISIS.

The writer continued: “Any issue that leads to Iran’s success is a matter that disturbs and worries Westerners, so they will make every effort to prevent this success. Today, Westerners are concerned about the fact that Russia will leave the alliance with Israel and move towards an alliance with Iran in the Gaza war, and the truth is that they fear a repetition of what happened in Syria in the Gaza issue.”

Sajjadi concluded that friendship with neighbors and the continuation of regional policy are beneficial to Iran, and that strengthening its relations and interactions with neighboring and surrounding countries leads to the weakening of the West, and thus it will be forced to correct its relations with Tehran and submit to it, and accept the power of the Islamic world, as he put it.

In the same context, Iranian political analyst Hassan Hani Zadeh confirmed that the arrival of Yemeni missiles to Israel surprised the generals of the Israeli army and created new deterrence equations in the regional arena.

In an article in the reformist newspaper “Arman Melli”, the writer added that the missiles’ passage through six layers of air defense systems means that the axis of resistance is adopting a new war strategy to change the equation of the Gaza war.

The writer continued: “The failure of the ceasefire negotiations led the axis of resistance to enter the war arena seriously and directly to prevent genocide and the killing of the defenseless people of Gaza, and the axis adopted the new strategy that was designed and implemented as a result of the inability of international organizations to stop the killing of the people of Gaza”.

Hani Zadeh concluded that the missiles that fell on Israel carried an important message to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli generals that the axis of resistance is capable of changing the equation of the Gaza war without any considerations.

A long journey

There is still a long way to go before we talk about a new regional system in the Middle East, but the accelerating steps in the process of coexistence and the attempt to reach compromise solutions open the way for gradual steps to build confidence and achieve more understanding on specific issues. It is most likely that if this is achieved steadily, it will open the door to this long-awaited system.