On January 15, in the ice-covered state of Iowa, a crucial election took place that will influence the destiny of not only the US but also the entire world in November 2024. This election, which could be considered as a prelude to the Republican Party’s primaries, saw Donald Trump unequivocally declaring himself as the Republican Party’s presidential candidate for the next elections. The Iowa state primaries historically play a role in announcing the Republican presidential candidate for that year. So, we can say that the November 2024 elections will be a fight to the finish between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
Realignment in the US politics
Today, American politics is experiencing a realignment, much like the realignment in the other countries in a more intensified pace. During the eras of Bush and Reagan, the aggressive hawks known as neo-cons were typically aligned within the Republican Party. This party was considered the main breeding ground of neo-cons during the days when the US still held its power at its peak. However, as the decline began with the defeat in the Vietnam War, American politics underwent turbulence and witnessed new alignments.
Even the collapse of the Soviet Union, as a result of the efforts of the US and the treachery of the Gorbachev administration, could not prevent this alignment. We saw in the “US empire” a similar situation to that of the British Empire, which suffered a decline despite emerging victorious from the World War II. Although the Soviet Union collapsed, the US was unable to create “one empire” covering the entire world. Recognizing that they might not be the center of the world anymore, a section in the US shifted towards a more “calm and conservative” stance in the realignment.
Firstly within the Republican Party
This section gathered in the Republican Party -which until then had been led by the neo-con aggressors- and formed one camp within the Party that has persisted to this day. In this struggle within the Party, even Liz Cheney, the daughter of Dick Cheney, a prominent former neo-con leader and architect of the Iraq invasion, was expelled from the Republican Party. This alignment continues to this day, making the Republican Party a boiling cauldron of ideas from almost all factions, including white supremacists, Evangelical religious conservatives, high-tech billionaires, even African Americans from the US south. This process is likely to go on for a long time.
Then within the Democrats
Starting from the days of the dissolution of Yugoslavia, the neo-cons realized that they could find a much more suitable place within the Democratic Party. The “liberal, democratic and leftist” image of the Democratic Party provided a very good cover. After Yugoslavia, in the Obama era, they started the war in Syria and the Greater Middle East project was put into practice. With prominent neo-cons such as former Republican Liz Cheney, they slowly took over the Democratic Party and formed the basis of today’s Biden administration. Since this process of realignment is still ongoing, it is worth noting that in the coming period, those with aggressive tendencies will leave the Republican Party and move towards the Democrats. It is inevitable that some Republicans who are strongly in favor of the current Israeli attacks on Palestine will slowly move towards the more aggressive centrist Democrats. In fact, this is the group that wants to break Trump’s influence among the Republicans. And once Trump’s candidacy is certain, they will move towards the Democrats. In other words, the alignment will become even clearer.
Mueller report to stop Trump
As of today, there are 91 lawsuits pending against Trump in American courts, ranging from raping women, evading taxes, incitement to riot, rigging elections, and everything else imaginable. The purpose of these lawsuits was to put the “sword of Damocles” over Trump’s head and prevent his candidacy. Then they aimed to somehow conclude these lawsuits so that Trump would be removed from candidacy by court decisions. Every day now, the American people watch Trump running from court to court. These courts intentionally set up in areas where the Democrats are strong, and the composition of the jury and the possibility that the judges are close to the Democrats are being used as leverage against Trump.
Already in the first months of Trump’s presidency, the alignment caused important developments. The “Mueller report”, the case alleging that Russia helped Trump in the elections, which came to nothing after millions of dollars were spent, was perceived as a neo-con gun to Trump’s head. From the very first day, Trump was tried to serve neo-con goals. Since then, many lawsuits, including rape cases, have been brought to put an end to Trump’s political life. In a rape case, revived in recent weeks, Trump said the following to the woman who claimed to have been raped:
“With the greatest respect, firstly, you’re not my type, and secondly, the thing you’re talking about never even happened, OK?”
Because of these words, Donald Trump’s new lawsuit continues as a “defamation of character” lawsuit.
Against the US oligarchy
Experts analyzing Trump’s influence among the 320 million people in the US have highlighted the extraordinary importance of his relationship with the masses who support him. Even though he is a billionaire, the poor rural people of Iowa and West Virginia also believe that Trump will protect their interests and that he has the potential to change the inequalities in the current US system in their favor.
In the Iowa caucuses, 60-70 percent of the poor population of the towns and villages voted for Trump. In the eyes of these masses, Trump has repeatedly proved over the last four years that he is one of the few leaders who can stand up to the US oligarchy. For the approximately 160 million Americans who are unable to make their voices heard in Washington, Trump appears to be a very real option. Therefore, as Hayes Brown from MSNBC said, “It is a landslide that serves as an endorsement of the constant drumbeat for vengeance that Trump has made the centerpiece of his campaign.”
According to Karen Tumulty from the Washington Post, “Donald Trump romped to victory in Iowa’s Republican caucuses on Monday, and his coronation as his party’s 2024 standard-bearer is officially underway.” Even evangelical Christians who did not support Trump in the last 2020 presidential elections and those who call themselves “conservatives” voted for Trump in this election. Therefore, Trump’s overwhelming victory over Biden in November 2024 is now considered almost certain.