The US think tank RAND Corporation, the so-called “shadow CIA”, has published a report outlining the main methods for the reconstruction of post-war Ukraine by the Western bloc. The report emphasized that the US should be the country to militarily “defend” Ukraine.
The idea that “the Russian-Ukrainian war is nearing its end” has started a debate on post-war policies. The article, prepared by the US-based think tank RAND Corporation, calls for the EU to shoulder the financial burden of reconstruction and for the US to provide military protection. The article titled “Post-War Ukraine: Planning for a Successful and Secure Recovery” shows that the US will take action to fill the economic and political gap that will arise in the reconstruction of Ukraine.
The largest reconstruction project
Howard Shatz, a senior economist at RAND, describes the process as possibly “the largest recovery project in modern history.” He states: “It’s not going to be like Iraq or Afghanistan. There’s no insurgency here. The war has unified Ukrainians, not divided them. This is going to be more like what happened in Europe after World War II or the fall of the Berlin Wall.”
Pointing out that Ukraine was the poorest country in Europe before the war and that there was significant corruption in the country, the report stated that Ukraine had to adopt a “new path” after the war in order to rebuild.
The West is hesitant about Ukraine’s NATO membership
The report concludes that at the end of the war, the West has a responsibility to ensure Ukraine’s defense. However, they are hesitant on Ukraine’s NATO membership: “Bringing it into NATO is one option—but it’s only one option. The US and other allies could instead continue to supply Ukraine with weapons and training to build up its own defenses. They could also threaten to send in their own forces if Russia crosses the border again.” “NATO doesn’t need Ukraine as a member to deter Russia,” said renowned diplomat James Dobbins, who holds a distinguished chair in diplomacy and security at RAND.
The report, which cites RAND researcher’s historical analysis of reconstruction processes after the devastation such as natural disasters and war in different countries, emphasized that Ukraine’s reconstruction should not be left to Ukrainians. “In fact, in the majority of the natural disasters we looked at, those local communities lacked the staff, expertise, and processes to manage such a large reconstruction effort,” said Gabrielle Tarini, an associate policy researcher who coauthored the report. “So, while we certainly want to localize the effort in Ukraine as much as possible, we also need to be mindful of the capacity constraints that communities are going to have.” said Gabrielle Tarini, political researcher and coauthor of the report.
New Marshall plan
Considering the scale of the problem, many commentators have called for a new Marshall Plan for Ukraine, according to the report. It recalled that post-World War II policies worked in the form of US aid and the infusion of private capital into the countries concerned, and argued that the same could work for Ukraine: “The original Marshall Plan provided billions of dollars to help pull Western Europe out of the wreckage of World War II. The aid—and the creation of NATO at the same time—provided the stability that Europe needed to rebuild. But what often gets overlooked is that it was private investment, not international aid, that mainly bankrolled the recovery. And the economic engines of Europe didn’t really start up again until international trade started flowing. Central Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall might provide a closer precedent for Ukraine. There, some U.S. aid came in the form of enterprise funds that invested in small and medium-sized companies. Those funds revitalized banks and rebuilt industries to help the countries receiving it, such as Poland and Hungary, eventually join the single market of the European Union.”
The report’s researchers also emphasized that Ukraine’s economic vision should be shaped by its membership of the European Union.
Money from the EU, weapons from the US
The RAND report also analyzes the division of tasks for Ukraine’s reconstruction in three categories as follows: “The European Union should take the lead—with Ukraine setting the priorities—on managing the economic recovery. The US should take the lead on questions of security. All major partners should appoint special representatives to coordinate their support and ensure Ukraine’s needs are met, even down to rubble removal. And, with billions of dollars likely to flow into the country, Ukraine should appoint an independent inspector general to ensure the money is well spent, and the process is transparent.”
On the other hand, the report noted that billions of dollars of capital will flow into the country after the war and called for the appointment of international “special representatives” to ensure trilateral coordination and meet Ukraine’s “needs”.
The goal is to bring Ukraine into the EU
“Ultimately, building a secure, economically prosperous Ukraine that is fully integrated into European institutions will be a capstone achievement, beneficial on both sides of the Atlantic and a boon for global security and Western democracy.” the report said, emphasizing that the West must now raise additional resources for the long process of recovery. According to the report, Ukrainian economists have estimated that the amount of investment and financial support needed for new power plants, modern buildings, workforce development programs, legal reforms, science parks and electric vehicle production centers will amount to over $750 billion.