Reporting from Brazil
Brazil is going through a decisive moment in its history. We are just a few hours away from knowing who will be the head of the Executive Power for the next four years in the largest economy and in the largest democracy in Latin America. Although this is happening in the post-pandemic era, we are clearly still in the midst of the development of a new global crisis of capitalism, the resurgence of neo-fascist movements around the world, as well as a repositioning of forces progressives in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Who will win the elections?
Brazil is also a continental country, among other things, that is why it is difficult to know how the vast majority of the population eligible to vote will express themselves at the polls: more than 150 million Brazilians can and must (by its Constitution) vote, out of a total of 215 million inhabitants that the country currently has. However, the polls continue to give victory this Sunday, October 30, to Luiz Inácio da Silva, the candidate of the Workers’ Party and of a large broad front that brought together more than 10 political parties, in the coalition named “Brazil of Hope”.
Given the scenario of great tension and uncertainty, the polls (in which no one should ever trust, even less so in such an important presidential election) continue to play a fundamental and leading role in trying to reduce anxiety a little. Among them, we highlight the latest Atlas Institute survey, because it was the only one that came very close to the final results of the first round, held on October 2. All the other institutes that conducted surveys, in our opinion, underestimated the votes of Bolsonaro’s supporters, especially because of the so-called “hidden vote.” The also so-called “vote of shame” is nothing more than the vote of those people who do not want to express – in theory out of shame – that they are going to vote for Bolsonaro.
In addition, Atlas Institute conducts its surveys based on sources and data obtained from the Internet, while the other institutes were doing it through telephone calls or face-to-face surveys (more classic methods). The latter could be responsible for obtaining the declaration of the vote, was “contaminated” or “reserved” in certain aspects and for different reasons. In fact, aligning themselves with Atlas, now -for the second turn- several institutions have begun to carry out their queries through the internet.
Atlas Institute Survey
Survey President of Brazil Elections, October 24th.
– Lula would win the elections with 53.2% two valid votes
– Bolsonaro would obtain 46.8% of the votes.
Final results of the first round
Totaling 100% of the votes of the first turn, these were the net results:
- Lula: obtained 57.259.504 of the votes, which represented 48.43% of the votes
- Bolsonaro: got 51.072.345 votes, equivalent to 43.20% of votes.
- Participation: 123.682.372 appeared at the ballot boxes.
- Abstention: 32.770.982 Brazilians did not express their vote (20.95%)
- Null votes: 3.487.874
- Blank votes: 1.964.779
The day after
The hours that will follow after knowing the final and definitive results are even more uncertain. The tension and nervousness are at their highest levels, and that day will undoubtedly be a “heart attack”. The dangers of and threats by Bolsonaro not to recognize the results in case they are adverse continue to be real.
In fact, the current Brazilian president has engaged in a frontal confrontation against the Judiciary that has led him to a kind of “lawfare” in reverse, that is, the president attacking the judicial system to undermine representative democracy in Brazil. In addition, the most violent wing (and it must also be said, the armed wing) within Bolsonaro’s supporters are capable of anything, they have already expressed their intention to commit assassination against Lula if he is re-elected president of the Federative Republic of Brazil.
Although this is so, in recent weeks, we have been able to show a decrease in the effective and concrete acts of confrontation between Bolsonarists and Lulistas, that is, there have been no known -at least in the national media- of deaths for political reasons. This could mean that Brazilians are aware that the real battle is democratic. It is what we expect.
Meanwhile, United World International will take you to the Lula´s headquarter, so you can wait with us for the final results: