By Adem Kılıç
Political scientist / author
Since the end of After Muammar Ghaddafi’s 42 years long rule in 2011, Libya has been witnessing circumstances of complete chaos.
In this chaotic scenery, “democratic elections” were held twice, in 2012 and 2014. However, these elections did not end the chaos, instead, they have deepened the existing division within the country, and its situation is dragging the country into another civil war.
The national elections, which were expected to unite Libya in 2014, have instead divided it right through the middle. They left Libya with a Government of National Accord (GNA) based in the capital Tripoli in the west, competing with General Khalifa Haftar’s eastern troops and a coalition of irregular fighters. Haftar’s National Army secured major oil supplies by expanding his control in the east and south before moving towards Tripoli in 2019.
Supporting the GNA, Turkey sent troops the following year to support the UN-approved government, and Haftar’s militants were forced to retreat in battles where more than 2,000 people kost thier lives and tens of thousands are displaced. Eventually, a ceasefire was declared in August 2020.
After 10 years of bloody conflict, Libya is now seeking democracy for the third time, with the people preparing to go to the polls again on December 24. But the current election process still faces major problems.
Bitter rivalries and geographic divisions raise the risk that losing candidates do not accept the result, prompting Libya’s opposing militias to take up arms again and potentially shut down oil production.
As a matter of fact, the currently valid controversial election law caused a serious crisis over candidacies even one month before the elections.
The Libyan Supreme Election Council for various reasons so far has rejected the candidacy of 25 out of 98 candidates for the presidential race.
Some of the strongest candidates were on the no-good list; Prime Minister of the Union Government Abdulhamid Dbeibeh, the son of the deposed leader Muammar Ghaddafi, Saif al-Islam, and the leader of the eastern militia forces, the warlord General Haftar.
These developments caused a new chaos. The objections of these candidates to the Tripoli Court of Appeal were accepted and the obstacles in front of their candidacy were lifted.
Election is approaching
Looking at similar examples in the region: the most important outcome expected from post-civil war elections is that the election results represent and satisfy most of the country. Another expectation is, of course, that the parties participating in the elections respect democracy.
Will the elections in Libya meet these expectations?
When we look at the developments in Libya, it seems that these expectations cannot be fully met, regardless of the outcome of the December 24 elections.
Let’s examine similar examples in the region such as Sudan and even Egypt. We observe that the parties with an important rivalry in the past continued policies of then after the election results and acted with a sense of revenge instead of uniting the country.
Other candidates for similar reasons will wear out the result of the elections in Libya, especially with the influence of foreign power elements. The results might not even be recognized.
As a matter of fact, Libyan State Council President Khalid Al-Mishri, who recently attended an online conference organized by United World International, showed an attitude supporting this approach and has already declared that they will not recognize the election results.
Again, in the light of past examples, it is seen that the groups excluded from the political scene through the post-war elections became involved in radical organizations or negatively affected the transition process in the legitimacy crisis. Moreover, it is almost certain that we will see the same process mentioned above in an arena like Libya where foreign powers are very active.
Internal effects and expectations
Haftar’s election strategy is based on consolidating votes in the eastern provinces with a population of 800,000 voters, especially through the tribes that support him. However, at this point, it is seen that especially Saif al-Islam Ghaddafi will cause a serious vote split in the ranks of Haftar, due to his influence over the pro-regime ex-soldiers.
There are about 140 tribes in Libya. However, at this point, it is estimated that 35-40 tribes effectively penetrated the masses. Among these are noteworthy especially the Gaddafa Tribe, Varshefana and Magariha Tribes, which have supported Haftar so far, and the Zintan Tribe and Zuvaya Tribe, which support him partially. The choices these tribes will make after Ghaddafi’s candidacy would greatly affect the results.
The exclusion of Gaddafi and Dbeibeh from the election race would have given Haftar significant advantages. However, the removal of the obstacle on the candidacy of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi brought the risk of dividing the eastern votes, and the removal of the obstacle on the candidacy of Dbeibeh challenged that the West stands behind a single candidate, thus changing the balance.
Considering the experience of two election attempts after the overthrow of Muammar Ghaddafi, and also considering that Tripoli and Misrata in the western wing of Libya have 1.8 million voters, it seems inevitable that a popular candidate from the west will succeed in the elections.
According to the latest data released, 2.5 million Libyan voters have registered to vote so far. The majority of these voters are thought to be those in the western parts.
On the other hand, the announcement that important majority groups such as the State Supreme Council led by Khaled al-Mishri, some militia groups from Misrata and the Muslim Brotherhood will boycott the elections, making the western candidate even stronger.
Conclusion
In the west parts: Abdulhamid Dbeibeh, former Minister of Internal Affairs, Fethi Bashagha, former Deputy Prime Minister of the GNA period, Ahmet Maiteeq, Ibrahim Dabashi and Fethi Bin Shahvan, one of the energy ministers of the Ghaddafi period, come upfront. In the east, Hafter, Parliament Speaker Aquila Saleh and Ihiya Party leader Arif Nayid seem to lead the race.
In the light of all the information, it is reasonable to predict that a western part candidate will win the election. Among these candidates, Abdulhamid Dbeibeh seems to have the biggest chance with the positive perception and support he gained in the eyes of the public during his short term of office.
The powers that support the parties to the conflict have put aside their differences, especially recently. Egypt, UAE, Russia and Turkey, which have recently begun to experience political convergence and normalization, have so far fulfilled their commitments to support the interim government of Dbeibeh.
However, France is not very constructive in this regard. Libya has become even more important for Paris, which has gradually lost its influence in the African region. The Libya Conference held last month did not result in the way France wanted and France could not get the support it wanted from the parties. It should be noted that if the elections do not deliver the desired result, France will take more risks together with Greece in order to be active in Libya, which is very important for African and Eastern Mediterranean interests.
On the other hand, the USA will not accept an outcome in which Russia will be effective and will take steps to undermine stability.
In this process, calls for ‘withdrawal of foreign soldiers from Libya’ were not fully answered. According to the UN’s reports, there are still military forces linked to many countries in Libya. Among them, the only legitimate military presence under international law is the military presence of Turkey, which has entered into a security agreement with the UN-recognized government.
A UN report released in October reported that “many international parties, including third states, foreign fighters and mercenaries, have violated humanitarian law, and some have committed war crimes”.
While most Libyans yearn for peace, there is a strong incentive for citizens to respect the outcome. But continued disagreements over the legitimacy of the candidates, and even the election itself, could lead to a new war. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, the country will remain tense until mid-February, when the runoff will determine the winner.
But whoever gets elected, election results will not end the chaos in Libya. In fact, objections to the result will trigger the steps of consolidating and legitimizing the power of the groups that take advantage of the war, together with the rhetoric that the elections are ‘not a solution’.
In other words, the election result will trigger non-government groups to opt out of democracy in order to prevent the status quo. The fact that many international powers are trying to be influential in Libya will also affect these groups, the size of the chaos that will emerge after the elections will increase even more.
In summary; regardless of the election result after 24 December, other groups will not recognize the winning side and conflicts between polarized sections are likely to flare up again.