By Mehmet Enes Beşer
In October 2024, an agreement was reached between India and China to restore pre-2020 border patrolling along the disputed territories of Depsang and Demchok. The deal comes after the deadly confrontation in the Galwan Valley back in 2020, when 20 Indian soldiers and 4 Chinese soldiers died in the military clash. It triggered an escalation and caused ongoing tensions between the two sides that included a standoff between their militaries and poor diplomatic ties.
In accordance with India’s foreign policy of strategic autonomy, the current deal allows India to conduct foreign policy independently, without being heavily dependent on any major power bloc. After the clash in Galwan Valley, India sought more strategic engagements with the US and other nations of similar mind. But a normalization in relation with China increases options of India’s external relations and makes it possible to conduct relations with many powers simultaneously without a strong association with any one country.
China views this agreement as a measure to prevent further expansion of Indian strategic engagement in opposition to China. By creating stability around the border, China can prevent the formation of a coalition that might work against its interest. Consequently, the country can maintain its advantageous position in the area strategically.
The standoff resulted in a stagnation in economic exchange between the two nations. Therefore, India took several measures, such as imposing sanctions on Chinese applications and stricter regulations for investments coming from China. The current agreement opens the doors to new opportunities to improve economic relations and conduct trade again. For China, which is having increasing trade friction with the West, access to the big market of about 1.45 billion people in India becomes even more important.
The timing of the agreement appears to be meaningful, as it was signed before the upcoming summit of the BRICS nations in Russia where both China and India have leaders participating. Thus, it reveals the fact that both sides agree on the importance of maintaining unity in multilateral institutions, like BRICS, to counteract Western powers. From India’s point of view, the normalization of relations will make it easier to overcome diplomatic difficulties resulting from tense relations with Western nations.
There are still many aspects that require addressing. The current deal mainly touches upon urgent tactical matters but leaves the major strategic issues unresolved. For instance, both nations are still keeping significant military forces in the close proximity to the border. Political situation at home in both countries may impact the ability of each nation’s government to sustain the agreement in the long run because of nationalism.
In conclusion, India-China agreement on the border issues of October 2024 can be viewed as an effort to stabilize their bilateral relations in the difficult geopolitical environment. Each side shows its readiness to address differences and make necessary compromises to improve their interaction.
From India’s perspective, the agreement helps preserve its independence in foreign policy and allows it to cooperate with other nations without compromising its interests. Furthermore, it may be useful in the economic sense since relaxing restrictions concerning Chinese products and investments will help some Indian industries revive and prosper.
China also finds it beneficial to establish sustainable cooperation with India. By maintaining good ties with India, China can find itself additional market for business and create economic diversification as an option to address economic friction with Western powers. In diplomatic sense, China gets an opportunity to prove itself as a country ready to solve disputes peacefully.
However, the agreement only covers a narrow range of immediate concerns and cannot help to resolve bigger problems regarding territorial disagreements and other causes of tension. Military presence at the border of both countries proves that both are preparing for unexpected developments. To build further success, both sides need high-level diplomatic efforts to finally settle the dispute.